Marc Andreessen's 2026 Outlook: AI Timelines, US vs. China, and The Price of AI

a16z’s Erik Torenberg, Ben Horowitz, and Jennifer Li sit down with Vals founder and CEO Rayan Krishnan to discuss one of AI’s increasingly difficult problems: how do you actually measure whether a model is getting better? As public benchmarks saturate and models get better at optimizing for the tests themselves, Rayan makes the case for independent, continuously evolving evaluations. They unpack why self-reported model scores can be misleading, how VALS evaluates models in the hours before a release, and why measuring increasingly agentic systems means testing work that can unfold over hours, days, or even weeks. They also explore why evals are becoming critical for enterprises trying to understand the ROI of AI, what happens if token spend begins to rival employee salaries, and how evaluations could eventually provide a shared language for everything from model routing and recursive self-improvement to AI policy and international coordination.

a16z Infra Partner Lisha Li sits down with OpenAI mathematicians Mehtaab Sawhney and Mark Sellke to discuss how quickly AI’s mathematical capabilities are advancing, what recent results reveal about model reasoning, and what happens when AI begins making progress on problems mathematicians have struggled with for decades. Mehtaab and Mark unpack several recent results from OpenAI’s models, including advances in sphere packing and the construction of a non-sofic group. They explain why the surprising part isn’t simply that models can search more possibilities or work longer than humans: in many cases, the reasoning traces look remarkably similar to the work of an expert mathematician, including choosing promising approaches, backtracking when they fail, and combining ideas from across the literature. They also explore what this means for mathematics itself: how the role of human taste and judgment may change, whether AI could produce far more mathematics than humans can absorb, and why models that accelerate discovery may also make sophisticated results easier to understand.

MTS host Sophia Dew visits the Open Source AI Summit in San Francisco to ask researchers and founders across the AI stack a central question: can open source prevent AI power from concentrating in the hands of a few companies? Lukasz Kaiser, co-author of Attention Is All You Need, argues that today’s concentration may be a feature of the current technological paradigm rather than a permanent feature of AI. Transformers reward enormous amounts of data and compute, but future breakthroughs could make smaller, more specialized models far more capable. Across conversations with researchers and builders working on open models, infrastructure, and applications, Sophia explores why China has taken the lead in open-weight models, whether the U.S. needs more open-model startups, what it means for companies to own their own intelligence, and where openness alone falls short, particularly when access to compute remains concentrated.

a16z General Partner Julie Yoo joins MTS host Sophia Dew to explain why she believes healthcare could benefit more from AI than almost any other industry, and why decades of slow technology adoption may actually give healthcare an advantage in the AI era. Julie traces healthcare’s evolution from paper records and fax machines through electronic health records and telehealth, and explains why AI represents something different: an organic adoption wave driven by tools that doctors and patients actually want to use. Because healthcare never built the same layers of legacy software as other industries, it may now be able to leapfrog directly into agentic AI. They also explore how AI could dramatically lower the cost of care, why consumers are becoming a more important payer, where Julie sees the biggest opportunities for healthcare founders, and a future where everyone has a highly personalized AI doctor in their pocket for life.

Box co-founder and CEO Aaron Levie joins MTS hosts Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini to make the case for open-weight AI, unpack the economics of open versus closed models, and explain why he believes more openness could strengthen rather than undermine the U.S. AI ecosystem. Aaron argues that open models create more use cases, push closed labs to innovate faster, and don't fundamentally change where the economics of AI ultimately accrue. They debate model distillation, America's competition with China, why restricting access may simply accelerate competing AI ecosystems, and whether U.S. labs should begin releasing open-weight versions of previous-generation models. They also get into what the latest frontier models mean for knowledge work, how AI has changed software engineering at Box, and why Aaron believes companies cutting engineers may simply not be ambitious enough. Finally, they discuss why enterprises are unlikely to bet on a single model and why the layer that routes between models, data, and workflows could become increasingly valuable.