The “Game Changers” Edition

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “With Arms Wide Open.” After years of open skepticism toward Ukraine (and uncharacteristic deference to Russia), it seems President Trump may have turned a page. His rhetoric has grown cooler toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he has proven more willing to provide arms to Ukraine, even over contrary efforts by some of his advisers—including an agreement to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles and other U.S.-made, Europe-funded weapons. What explains this switch? And how durable is it likely to prove?“Hitting Foggy Bottom.” Just days after the Supreme Court removed a preliminary injunction, the State Department went forward with substantial personnel cuts, RIFing 1,350 foreign and civil service personnel in Washington, D.C. It’s all part of a much broader reorganization that State Department leadership claims will make the Department leaner or more efficient, even as it guts personnel working on issues disfavored by the Trump administration. “Waiting for the Intel Impressment.” Since the Trump administration’s June 21 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a heated debate has raged over their effects. The administration maintains the strikes were “historically successful” and permanently set back the Iranian nuclear program. But media reports source to people within the intelligence community have suggested a much more limited effect. How should we weigh these competing claims? And when will we know the truth?In object lessons, Ben asks for your public service in supporting Lawfare’s Public Service Fellowship. Scott pulled a Quinta with his recommendation of the New Yorker essay “Zohran Mamdani and Mahmoud Khalil Are in on the Joke,” by Hanif Abdurraquib. And Eric makes his summer travels epic by listening to the podcast, The Rest is History. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Natalie Orpett, and University of Virginia School of Law professor Ashley Deeks, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including: “Bracing for Fallout.” In a surprise move, President Trump joined Israel’s military campaign against Iran over the weekend, using a specialized U.S. ordinance to hit Iranian nuclear sites that were beyond Israel’s early reach. It’s unclear to what extent the attack set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and debates continue to rage whether the president’s actions were wise or legal. But it did trigger an Iranian response against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf — action that was shortly followed by a tentative U.S.-backed ceasefire between Iran and Israel. What best explains the president’s decision to join the military campaign? And what will the consequences be, both in the region and back home in the United States?“Destinations Unknown.” In a short, unexplained opinion in the matter of DHS v. DVD this past week, the Supreme Court stayed a lower court preliminary injunction that had barred the Trump administration from removing immigrants to third countries with minimal procedural protections against threats of torture and other mistreatment. But the exact ramifications of this holding are unclear, as the Justice Department has now returned to the Court asking for clarification as to whether its ruling also invalidates a later order applying the class-wide prohibition in the initial preliminary injunction to a specific group of individuals. What explains the Supreme Court’s odd approach in this case? And what could its broader ramifications be for the Trump administration’s immigration agenda?“‘Bove the Law.” A now-public internal Justice Department whistleblower report alleges that Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General—and current Third Circuit nominee—Emil Bove endorsed plans to disregard judicial orders that would have obstructed the removal of foreign nationals in directing the Department of Homeland Security that it did not need to return certain deportation flights already in the air after a judge directed as much from the bench. How serious a transgression has Bove committed if these allegations are true? And what impact will they have on his Third Circuit confirmation?In object lessons, forget day-of-the-week underpants (or pronghorn shirts)! Ben spurs on a need for more day-of-the-week monsters with the last weather report you’ll ever need. Natalie is escaping, not just from reality but also from the heat, with her local bookstore, East City Bookshop. Scott shared the heartbreaking news that The Atlantic is stealing yet another Rational Security co-host emeritus as our beloved Quinta Jurecic begins her next crazy venture beneath the skies (Quinta, we miss you already!). And Ashley, channeling our bereavement at Quinta’s departure, recommends Alone on the History Channel. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Foreign Policy Editors Daniel Byman and Dana Stuster to talk through the week’s big news in Israel and Iran, including: “The Nuclear Option.” Israel crossed the rubicon late last week and took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, among other targets, in an aggressive unilateral military campaign that has only expanded in the ensuing days. Iran, meanwhile, has reciprocated with volleys of attacks against Israel, some of which are getting through the substantial missile defenses Israel (and the United States) have deployed. It’s the Middle East war everyone has feared for more than a decade. How will it come to an end? And what will its ramifications be for the region?“Bibi Got Back.” Israel has threatened to take direct military action against Iran over its nuclear program multiple times over the past two decades but has always stopped short. Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed this time? And what will the implications be for his government, which has been teetering on the edge of collapse? And for his relationship with President Trump, his once close ally who declined to back his decision to proceed?“Bye-Atollah.” While Israel’s official target has been Iran’s nuclear and military complexes, many observers suspect that their real goal is something else: regime change. And recent reports that Netanyahu proposed killing Iranian political and spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini—but relented after objections from the Trump administration—suggest they may be right. What might Iran look like if its current regime collapses? And will it help or hurt Israeli (and U.S.) security interests?In Object Lessons, Tyler sang the praises of online radio station NTS.Live and NTS Guides to all of your quirky and eclectic musical tastes. Scott didn’t miss a beat with his throwback recommendation of Schoolhouse Rock song covers, with a particular fondness for Pavement’s rendition of No More Kings. And Dana shared his appreciation for analysis that takes Israel’s and Iran’s strategic calculus seriously. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Quinta Jurecic, and Contributing Editor Chris Mirasola, to focus on the week’s big domestic news, including: “Drama Majors, Meet Major Drama.” In the glittering city of Los Angeles, the Trump administration has taken the dramatic step of calling up the California National Guard and deploying them alongside active duty Marines to secure federal personnel and facilities, specifically against protestors demonstrating against the Trump administration’s draconian immigration policies. Is this the beginning of a broader threat to the constitutional order, as some of Trump’s critics say it is? And what should we make of President Trump’s suggestion that he may yet invoke the controversial Insurrection Act?“Precision Rescission, What’s Your Mission?” The Trump administration has asked Congress to formally rescind a slice of the federal spending it has been withholding since entering office, specifically relating to foreign assistance and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting—a request the House seems poised to move on this week. How likely is it that Congress will agree to the cut in funds? And what will the implications be for relevant legal challenges and Trump’s broader agenda?“There and Back Again.” After an unexpected journey and epic delays on the part of the government, the Trump administration has finally repatriated Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador—only to charge him with human trafficking and other federal crimes in Tennessee. How serious are the charges against him? And is this likely to be a win or loss for the administration’s broader immigration agenda?In object lessons, Molly shared a ranking of New York mayoral candidates by their bagel orders—and whose order is so bad, it’s a schmear on their very New Yorker-ness. Quinta recommends Ava Kofman’s profile of Curtis Yarvin in the New Yorker as a masterclass in the art of meticulous evisceration. Scott introduced his 4-year-old to his old Tintin books by Hergé—because it’s never too early to get into the drawbacks of colonialism. And Chris fled real DC drama for fake DC drama with The Residence on Netflix. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Contributing Editors Eric Ciaramella and Alex Zerden to talk through the week’s big national security and foreign policy news, including:  “The Road to Damascus.” Over the past two weeks, the Trump administration has done an extraordinary about-face on U.S. policy towards Syria, installing almost universal exceptions to most existing sanctions programs and promising to end others. European and other allies seem poised to follow suit, all in an effort to forestall the feared collapse of the post-Assad transitional government being headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, himself a former terrorist leader. But will it be enough to put post-Civil War Syria on the road to recovery? And will this new policy orientation prove sustainable?“No Fly Zone.” Ukraine struck a historic blow deep into Russian territory over the weekend with a daring series of coordinated drone attacks—dubbed “Operation Spider Web”—that may have wiped out as much as a third of Moscow’s strategically important long range bombers. But will the attack help drive the costs of the conflict home to Russia, or trigger another round of escalation? And how will it be received by the Trump administration, several senior members of which are skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine?“Double Taxation.” President Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs suffered a pair of defeats in federal court last week, as two different courts chose to enjoin them, for two different sets of reasons. While both decisions have since been stayed, it’s a discouraging sign for the viability of the legal authorities being relied on by the Trump administration. Yet President Trump has continued to threaten tariffs aggressively, including against Europe. How big a threat are these legal holdings to the Trump administration’s policy agenda? And how will they impact its efforts to negotiate new bilateral trade deals, with allies and rivals alike?In Object Lessons, Eric polished off the last of The Rehearsal’s Season 2 and was left in awe of the show’s ability to actually become a show. Nastya returned from colder climates with a warm endorsement of all things Finland: its history, its icy stare at Russia, and its impressive ability to survive both. Speaking of war, Scott dove sword-first into fantasy, reminded of Joe Abercrombie’s The First Law trilogy after the new release of “The Devils.” And Alex kept it historical with a recommendation of “The Watchdog: How the Truman Committee Battled Corruption and Helped Win World War Two,” by Steve Drummond. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.