Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Anna Bower, Chris Mirasola, and Mykhailo Soldatenko to talk through the week’s big national security news, including: “Wings and a Prayer.” The Ukraine conflict has been the subject of intense shuttle diplomacy over the past week, as President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to a meeting in Alaska last Friday, only for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a cadre of European leaders to fly to Washington, DC, to meet with Trump yesterday at the White House. What do we know about their conversations? And could this be a turning point in the conflict?“Capital Offense.” It’s been more than a week since President Trump chose to make law enforcement in Washington, DC—a city he has derided as “taken over by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals”—a national priority, by deploying hundreds of National Guard personnel and federal law enforcement officers to the streets and seeking to assert federal control over the police department, in ways that triggered a legal challenge by the city. What is motivating this major policy effort? And where does it seem likely to lead?“The Ep Files: I Want to Believe.” The Trump administration is reportedly installing a new “co-”deputy director at the FBI, in part because of controversy the current incumbent—former right-wing radio host Dan Bongino—has courted relating to the release of the so-called “Epstein Files.” And it’s indicative of the major problems that these files—and the potential that they may say something about President Trump’s relationship with the notorious sex offender for whom they are named—are causing President Trump and his administration. What’s driving this rare point of dissent among the president’s core supporters? And what ramifications could it have for our justice system?In object lessons, Anna hyped a new Kelce brothers podcast episode that featured some girl that Travis is dating. Chris recommended a crafty parenting hack: taking your kid to Michael’s for some unplugged, creative fun. Scott channeled his inner influencer, telling you where you can find the newest, hippest dog shirts. And Mykhailo brought us back down to Earth with a recommendation of Timothy Snyder’s YouTube series, The Making of Modern Ukraine, for a dive into the context and real causes for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, a rejuvenated Scott returned from vacation to sit down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Daniel Byman, and Kate Klonick to talk through some of the week’s big national security news, including: “Occupational Hazards.” The Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated its intent to occupy Gaza City, the last segment of Gaza not under Israeli military control, and displace its civilians to “designated safe areas.” In an apparent response to both domestic and international outrage at the plan, Netanyahu later disavowed any intent to annex Gaza—even as he acknowledged calls to do so from within his coalition—and finally laid out a rough Israeli end-goal for Gaza: namely, a non-Israeli governing entity, led by neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, operating under complete Israeli security control. But will this be enough to assuage these concerns? And what does it tell us about where the Gaza conflict may be headed?“The Rake.” The Trump administration has struck a deal with chip manufacturers NVIDIA and AMD, allowing them to export certain high-end (but not frontier model) chips to Chinese companies engaging in AI research, among other relevant activities, so long as they share 15% of the profits with the government. It’s a move that has both Democrats and Republicans worried about major power competition with China crying foul, and lawyers raising serious doubts as to its legal viability. What appears to be driving this recent about-face? And what does it say about the trajectory of U.S. policy on AI (and China)?“The War on Drugs. But, Like, Actually.” According to the New York Times, President Trump has reportedly signed a secret order authorizing the use of military force against drug cartels his administration has designated as terrorist organizations. Exactly what sort of military action may result is not yet clear, but it already has legal and policy experts raising concerns on a number of different fronts. How big a move is this, and what actions might it yield?In object lessons, Dan, in learning more about 18th-century rivalries, recommends the game Imperial Struggle. Ben, in cheerful outrage, revealed his plans for 100lbs of blue and yellow marking chalk. Scott, in humble apology, reveled in his new-found love of pizza beans. Kate, in cheerful anticipation, expects a weekend of reverie with 14 pounds of fruit and vegetables. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Kevin Frazier, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “Feeding Frenzy.” The crisis in Gaza has reached a new, desperate stage. Months of a near total blockade on humanitarian assistance has created an imminent risk, if not a reality, of mass starvation among Gazan civilians. And it finally has the world—including President Donald Trump—taking notice and putting pressure on the Israeli government to change tack, including by threatening to recognize a Palestinian state. Now the Israeli government appears to be giving an inch, allowing what experts maintain is the bare minimum level of aid necessary to avoid famine into the country and even pursuing a few (largely symbolic) airlifts, while allowing other states to do the same. But how meaningful is this shift? And what could it mean for the trajectory of the broader conflict?“Hey, It Beats an AI Inaction Plan.” After months of anticipation, the Trump administration finally released its “AI Action Plan” last week. And despite some serious reservations about its handling of “woke AI” and select other culture war issues, the plan has generally been met with cautious optimism. How should we feel about the AI Action Plan? And what does it tell us about the direction AI policy is headed?“Pleas and No Thank You.” Earlier this month, the D.C. Circuit upheld then-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s decision to nullify plea deals that several of the surviving 9/11 perpetrators had struck with those prosecuting them in the military commissions. How persuasive is the court’s argument? And what does the decision mean for the future of the tribunals?In object lessons, Kevin highlighted a fascinating breakthrough from University of Texas engineers who developed over 1,500 AI-designed materials that can make buildings cooler and more energy efficient—an innovation that, coming from Texas, proves that necessity really is the mother of invention. Tyler took us on a wild ride into the world of Professional Bull Riders with a piece from The Baffler exploring the sport’s current state and terrifying risks. Scott brought a sobering but essential read from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about how synthetic imagery and disinformation are shaping the Iran-Israel conflict. And Natalie recommended “Drive Your Plow Over the Bones of the Dead,” by Olga Tokarczuk, assuring us it’s not nearly as murder-y as it sounds. Note: We will be on vacation next week but look forward to being back on August 13! To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Scott recorded this week’s special episode live from the 2025 Aspen Security Forum, where he sat down with a panel of top national security journalists—including co-host emeritus Shane Harris of The Atlantic, Mark Goldberg of the Global Dispatches podcast, and Alex Ward of the Wall Street Journal—to talk about some of the issues that have emerged at and around this year’s Forum, including: “Putting the Ass in Aspen.” Twenty-four hours before the Aspen Security Forum was set to begin, the Defense Department barred more than a dozen officials who had been publicly set to participate, for months, on the grounds that the Forum promotes “the evils of globalism.” What does this tell us about the Trump administration’s relationship to the foreign policy establishment?“Rolling Alone.” While U.S. officials were in short supply at the Forum, foreign officials were not, as foreign ministers and other officials from Europe, Asia, and other corners of the world had a heavy representation on the panels. And while those panels often addressed different topics, at least one common theme tended to emerge across them: the challenges of the new era of major power competition, especially at a moment when the United States seems especially skeptical of traditional alliances and multilateral institutions. What did we learn about the challenges these countries are facing? And what does it mean for the United States’ ability to strategically compete?“Deus Ex Machina.” If there is one topic that was represented at almost every panel at this year’s Forum, it is the question of Artificial Intelligence — how important it is, what it will do to solve the world’s problems, new problems it will cause, and all it will cost to win the race to perfecting it. But is AI really that important? Or does its ubiquity in national security conversation reflect more hype than substance?For object lessons, Shane shared his latest piece for The Atlantic about an old man, a dog, and the CIA’s efforts to keep them apart. Scott endorsed the Aspen Security Forum itself and urged those not in attendance to check out Aspen’s recordings of the event—as well as the recordings of various side conversations he made, which will be up on the Lawfare Daily feed later this week. Mark recommended his new podcast with Anjali Dayal on the United Nations, To Save Us From Hell, which they release as part of his U.N. Dispatch newsletter. And Alex shared his quest to read a book about each U.S. president, what it’s taught him about how weird the presidents are, and the online community that’s helping him get through it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “With Arms Wide Open.” After years of open skepticism toward Ukraine (and uncharacteristic deference to Russia), it seems President Trump may have turned a page. His rhetoric has grown cooler toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he has proven more willing to provide arms to Ukraine, even over contrary efforts by some of his advisers—including an agreement to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles and other U.S.-made, Europe-funded weapons. What explains this switch? And how durable is it likely to prove?“Hitting Foggy Bottom.” Just days after the Supreme Court removed a preliminary injunction, the State Department went forward with substantial personnel cuts, RIFing 1,350 foreign and civil service personnel in Washington, D.C. It’s all part of a much broader reorganization that State Department leadership claims will make the Department leaner or more efficient, even as it guts personnel working on issues disfavored by the Trump administration. “Waiting for the Intel Impressment.” Since the Trump administration’s June 21 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a heated debate has raged over their effects. The administration maintains the strikes were “historically successful” and permanently set back the Iranian nuclear program. But media reports source to people within the intelligence community have suggested a much more limited effect. How should we weigh these competing claims? And when will we know the truth?In object lessons, Ben asks for your public service in supporting Lawfare’s Public Service Fellowship. Scott pulled a Quinta with his recommendation of the New Yorker essay “Zohran Mamdani and Mahmoud Khalil Are in on the Joke,” by Hanif Abdurraquib. And Eric makes his summer travels epic by listening to the podcast, The Rest is History. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.