687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?
18 September - 48 minsThe promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)
SOURCES:Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.
RESOURCE:"Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026)."Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Resea...
Series Episodes
How to Be a Double Unicorn, with John Urschel | Better in Person
He was thriving in the N.F.L., but then he decided to focus on mathematics — a subject he now teaches at M.I.T. John walks Stephen Dubner through the whole story, teaches him some blocking techniques, and explains why some infinities are bigger than others. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts.
32 mins
15 September Finished
686. Why Is It So Hard to Find an NFL Quarterback?
For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.
58 mins
11 September Finished
Amazon Was Supposed to Kill the Bookstore. James Daunt Had Other Plans | Better in Person
He started with one small shop in London. He has since resuscitated both Barnes & Noble and Waterstones. He tells Stephen Dubner exactly how he does it. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts.
32 mins
8 September Finished
685. How to Survive the A.I. Shock
Gina Raimondo, a former commerce secretary and governor, thinks A.I. will create plenty of jobs in the long run. She also thinks a poorly managed transition could tear the country apart. So she came up with a plan.
57 mins
4 September Finished
How to Run an Institution in an Anti-Institution Era | Better in Person
Anne Pasternak (Brooklyn Museum) and Michael Roth (Wesleyan University) tell Stephen Dubner how they keep the peace in the middle of a culture war. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts.
37 mins
1 September Finished
