TIP729: Mastering the Capital Cycle
13 June - 1 hour 11 minsIn this episode, Clay explores the core ideas behind Capital Returns by Edward Chancellor and Marathon Asset Management. Based on decades of investing experience, the book uncovers the capital cycle framework, which reveals how capital flows, supply dynamics, and managerial incentives drive long-term investment outcomes. Whether you're a value investor, a portfolio manager, or simply curious about market cycles, this episode offers guidance for understanding the boom and bust nature of cyclical industries.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
01:31 - How the capital cycle explains boom and bust industry dynamics.
07:03 - Why tracking supply is often more useful than forecasting d...
Series Episodes
BTC245: The Next Metaplanet? (Smarter Web Company) w/ Jesse Myers and Andrew Webley
Andrew and Jesse join Preston to discuss Smarter Web’s transformation into a major Bitcoin Treasury firm, UK market dynamics, valuation strategies, and future growth plans, including preferred shares. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 14:02 - What is MNAV and why is it a crucial metric for valuing Bitcoin Treasury firms? 35:20 - How does Smarter Web plan to maintain its lead in the UK Bitcoin market amid rising competition? 49:52 - What are the benefits and risks of investing in a Bitcoin Treasury company versus Bitcoin directly? Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Slides presented (Part 1). Slides presented (Part 2). Smarter Web Company's Website. Smarter Web Company's X Account. Andrew’s X Account. Jesse's X Account. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock AnchorWatch Cape Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable Abundant Mines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 6 mins
30 July Finished
TIP740: The Great Mental Models Part 1
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses the power of mental models, how they sharpen our thinking, and how they improve our decision-making in investing and everyday life. He explores various key concepts in general thinking, including the circle of competence, inversion, first-principles thinking, probabilistic thinking, and more. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - What exactly are mental models? 04:37 - The three failures people have with interacting with reality. 08:43 - A simple 6-step framework for making mentals into a habit. 17:45 - How to utilize what you already know to gain an edge. 29:40 - The importance of thinking in first principles to improve your ability to innovate and simplify. 36:10 - How to use thought experiments to analyze a business. 41:14 - Why using second-order thinking can rapidly enhance your quality of thinking. 49:46 - How probabilistic thinking helps make sense of a dynamic world. 58:54 - Why spending time thinking about a problem backwards can improve your upside. 01:04:57 - Why you should focus on simple solutions over complex ones. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here. Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy a copy of The Great Mental Models Vol. 1 here. Read Shane Parrish’s blog here here. Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock AnchorWatch Cape Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable Abundant Mines HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 15 mins
27 July Finished
TIP739: The Psychology Of Human Misjudgement
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses Charlie Munger’s legendary speech, The Psychology of Human Misjudgment, and unpacks all 25 of his cognitive biases that often lead even the most intelligent people to make poor decisions. Drawing from Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Kyle explores how these psychological tendencies—like incentive-caused bias, social proof, and inconsistency avoidance—can distort our thinking in business, investing, and everyday life. He blends Munger’s timeless wisdom with real-world investing examples, personal experiences, and practical strategies to help listeners make better, more rational decisions. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:02 - Why incentives quietly override moral behavior. 06:32 - Why liking and disliking an investing thesis can distort reality. 09:54 - Why doubt avoidance cause investors to take significant risks in things like IPOs. 12:07 - How inconsistency avoidance causes a lazy creep into our thinking processes. 24:38 - How to avoid the destructive effects of reciprocation. 32:49 - The dangers of overestimating our abilities. 37:44 - Why jumping off a sinking ship beats trying to patch it up. 45:58 - Why contrasting stock prices in exuberant markets evaporates margins of safety. 59:41 - Why investors should choose simplicity > complexity. 01:01:43 - Why you should search for Lollapalooza effects in business. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here. Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy a copy of Poor Charlie’s Almanack here. Read about Charlie’s Psychology of Human Misjudgement here. Watch Charlie’s presentation on The Psychology of Human Misjudgement here. Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock AnchorWatch Cape Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable Abundant Mines HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 9 mins
25 July Finished
BTC244: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q2 2025 w/ Joe Carlasare, HODL, and Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast)
Bitcoin market insights, Treasury trends, stablecoin regulation, and bold predictions for Bitcoin's future. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:21 - How global liquidity and leverage affect Bitcoin's market performance 08:56 - The evolving role and risks of Bitcoin Treasury companies 17:26 - Why stablecoin regulations are reshaping digital finance 18:35 - What the Genius Act means for bank and non-bank stablecoin issuers 21:03 - How Tether and JPM are responding with gold tokens and Layer 2 solutions 24:50 - Why the Base network's centralization raises concerns 27:45 - Differing views on the US dollar's future amid AI-driven economic shifts 35:30 - Long-term predictions for Bitcoin and gold prices 40:33 - The strategic role of Bitcoin options trades 48:06 - Legal strategies for enforcing advertising contract disputes Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Related Episode: Bitcoin Mastermind 1st Quarter 2025. Related Episode: Bitcoin Mastermind 4th Quarter 2024. American Hodl on Nostr. Jeff Ross on Nostr. Joe Carlasare on X (Twitter), Nostr. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock AnchorWatch Cape Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable Abundant Mines Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 29 mins
23 July Finished
RWH059: Ask Me Anything w/ William Green
In this unusually personal and candid episode, William Green answers a wide range of probing questions posed by listeners to his podcast and readers of his book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets & Life.” Here, William discusses the key qualities, principles, and practices he’s observed in the best investors; how they handle adversity; what he’s learned from his own setbacks, failures, and mistakes; and how he’d invest if he were starting over. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:19 - What were the three best decisions William Green ever made? 17:04 - What Charlie Munger and Bill Miller can teach us about handling adversity. 23:40 - Why he views indomitable perseverance as the key to success. 34:52 - What drives investing stars like Bill Ackman, Will Danoff, and Mario Gabelli. 48:19 - Why the best investors focus on reducing complexity. 01:03:58 - How to succeed while constructing a calmer, more spacious life. 01:12:50 - How William approaches the art of interviewing. 01:38:22 - What he learned when his career (and profession) went up in smoke. 01:48:39 - What his worst investment mistakes taught him about building wealth. 01:53:28 - How investors can prosper mightily by getting the big things right. 01:55:23 - How he’d invest if he were starting over again. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here. Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. William Green’s podcast interview with Annie Duke. William Green’s podcast interview with Samantha McLemore. William Green’s podcast interview with Tsoknyi Rinpoche & Daniel Goleman. William Green’s podcast interview with Bill Nygren. William Green’s podcast interview with Brad Stulberg. Guy Spier's The Education of a Value Investor. Marcus Aurelius' Meditations. Jim Stockdale's Thoughts of a Philosophical Fighter Pilot. Daniel Goleman & Richard Davison's Altered Traits. Daniel Goleman & Tsoknyi Rinpoche's Why We Meditate. William Green’s TEDx Talk. William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book. Follow William Green on X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: SimpleMining Hardblock AnchorWatch Onramp Human Rights Foundation Unchained Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
2 hours 4 mins
20 July Finished
TIP738: Heico: The Quiet Aerospace Compounder
In this episode, Clay dives deep into the remarkable story of Heico — a quiet compounder that’s delivered over 22% annual returns for more than three decades. While aerospace may seem like a commoditized or slow-moving industry, Heico flips that assumption on its head. Clay breaks down how the Mendelson family transformed a struggling parts supplier into a $38 billion industry leader through exceptional capital allocation, a culture of ownership, and a nearly unbreakable moat built on regulatory mastery and being a partner that customers can trust. Whether you're an investor, entrepreneur, or business strategist, this episode offers timeless lessons on how to build and sustain a truly durable business. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:27 - The story of how the Mendelsons took a tiny parts supplier and turned it into a $38B aerospace powerhouse. 06:47 - How Heico turned strict FAA regulations into its biggest competitive advantage. 10:10 - Why airlines prefer Heico parts over the OEM alternatives. 17:50 - What makes Heico’s acquisition playbook similar to Berkshire Hathaway. 27:58 - Why Heico’s products and services are extremely sticky and provide predictable, recurring revenue streams. 37:25 - Why economic downturns benefit Heico, creating a countercyclical business model. 47:19 - How Heico’s culture is unique and has created hundreds of millionaire factory workers. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here. Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Interview with Eric Mendelson. 50x Podcast with Nick Howley. Book mentioned: Lessons from the Titans. Related Episode: TIP731: Owning Best-In-Class Businesses w/ Joseph Shaposhnik. Related Episode: TIP709: The Art of Long-Term Investing w/ Francois Rochon. Follow Clay on X and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock AnchorWatch Cape Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable Abundant Mines HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 10 mins
18 July Finished
