The David McWilliams Podcast

Ireland’s budget surplus is €9 billion, but the Department of Finance reckons €23 billion of the €34 billion in corporation tax is transient AI-boom money. Strip it out and we’re looking at a €13-14 billion deficit, heading for €20 billion by 2029. Meanwhile we’ve just pumped €7.4 billion of tax cuts and handouts into an economy already at full employment. Recorded live from New York, where financiers are getting twitchy about an AI bubble: US long-term rates are creeping towards 6%, and superscalers now gobble up 17% of the capital the Treasury needs. We ask whether Ireland is Norway or Nigeria when it comes to managing a windfall, why a hard budget focuses the mind, and why a rotating Taoiseach and a split Department of Finance add up to ordering two tiramisus because the voucher is free. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Calouste Gulbenkian never drilled a well, never owned a rig, and still died the richest man in the world. We follow the Armenian fixer from Constantinople who took 5% of everything: the Turkish Petroleum Company, Royal Dutch Shell, even a deal with Stalin paid in Hermitage art. His maps shaped modern Iraq and left the Kurds sitting on top of the oil, and his split of upstream, refining and distribution still defines Big Oil today. Plus why diesel is spiking, what a 100 million barrel release really does, and why this misanthropic networker gave his fortune to art while today's billionaires build spaceships. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dublin prices have fallen 5.2% last year, the biggest drop since 2014, and the buyer's strike is real. The premium over asking has shrunk from 7% to 2.6%, and the average couple on €108k can borrow just enough for a €484k home when a three-bed semi in Dublin asks €635k. We break down why: young people are maxed out, we're still building 1980s houses for a 2020s population, and the force driving prices this time is people, not credit like in 2008. Plus the Spanish eviction story that had Madrid in uproar, and why "the cure for high prices is high prices." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

15-year-olds across the OECD are now testing at levels last seen among 14-year-olds a decade ago, we've lost a full year of cognitive ability in ten years. One in five teenagers in the rich world would struggle to read their own phone bill. We dig into why: screens, AI shortcuts, the death of patient reading, and a "snowflake-isation" of education that's swapped hard exams for soft assessment. Ireland's own numbers aren't pretty either, with reading and maths both sliding since 2015. Is this really decline, or have we simply hit a natural ceiling on middle-class intelligence, meaning the real gains left are among poorer kids? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can a generous welfare state and large-scale immigration coexist? Fresh research says it depends on who arrives and what kind of welfare state they arrive in. In the UK, an average migrant couple needs a primary earner in the 55th percentile to pay their way. In Germany, it's the 28th. In Ireland, our back-of-envelope sums say the 65th, or about €62,000 a year. We break down why Ireland's tax and welfare system, where someone on €27,000 gets €11,000 back from the state and someone on €104,000 pays in €40,000, changes the whole debate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.