The "Potty Like It's 1999" Edition

This week, Scott sat down with cohost emeritus and Lawfare Research Director Alan Rozenshtein, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “Fission Accomplished.” After nearly four months of war, the United States and Iran have reached a deal to end the conflict—with Trump declaring it “complete” and authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a formal signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. But the agreement leaves enormous questions unresolved, from the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium to sanctions relief to whether the ceasefire extends to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon. Is this the durable peace Trump claims, or a fragile pause papering over the hardest issues?“Model Misbehavior.” Days after Anthropic publicly released its powerful new Claude Fable 5 model, the Commerce Department imposed export controls barring any foreign national—inside or outside the U.S.—from accessing it, forcing the company to disable the model worldwide. The administration says Anthropic recklessly refused to fix a dangerous jailbreak; Anthropic says it was a narrow, non-serious vulnerability and the order is a misunderstanding. What does this episode tell us about the government’s expanding use of export controls on AI—and its increasingly adversarial relationship with one of the country’s leading labs?“Bad Vibrations.” In one of her final acts as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard rescinded two Biden-era intelligence assessments that had cast doubt on whether a foreign adversary was behind “Havana Syndrome,” the mysterious ailments afflicting U.S. spies and diplomats. Gabbard’s office says the prior assessments cherry-picked intelligence to support a predetermined conclusion; critics worry about a politically motivated rewrite of analytic findings on the way out the door. What should we make of this last-minute reversal, and what does it mean for the future of the Havana syndrome debate—and Gabbard’s legacy as DNI?In object lessons, Tyler remains steadfast in his mission to ensure that no one ever runs out of podcasts, this week plugging A Whole Other Country, a discovery from Tribeca Festival Audio. Alan embraces peak dad-tech with his bbq upgrade—a new, after-market temperature controller. Scott savors a delightfully spicy Supreme Court dust-up in FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. And Julia celebrates her mug, an appropriate mainstay during her post-White-House-PDB “deep state therapy hour.” To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Michael Feinberg, and Molly Roberts to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including: “Blanche Check.” DOJ may soon have a new permanent leader, as President Trump has now formally nominated Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to the role permanently. But to secure Trump’s support, Blanche has indulged some of Trump’s most concerning instincts, as evidenced by the attempt to establish an anti-weaponization fund for Trump allies and renewed indictments of figures like former FBI Director James Comey. Meanwhile, DOJ has seen scandal after scandal during Blanche’s tenure over the rapidly declining quality and credibility of its work, exemplified most recently by evidence of grand jury tampering, arguably, in the Broadview Six prosecutions. What should we expect of DOJ under a confirmed Blanche? And how enduring will some of the harm that may result be for the department?“Tinker, Tailor, Realtor, Spy.” President Trump’s decision to dual-hat Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte—a man with no national security experience, who is best known for using his role at the FHFA to facilitate some of Trump’s most transparent attacks on perceived political enemies—as Acting Director of National Intelligence has triggered strong reactions across the political spectrum. This includes a threat by congressional Democrats to kill renewal of Section 702 surveillance authorities if Pulte remains in the acting position. But Trump has thus far refused to back down. What does Pulte’s appointment—and the potential expiration of Section 702—mean for national security?“Pratt Falls.” The open primary in the Los Angeles mayor’s race is over, and Trump-endorsed candidate Spencer Pratt finished just outside the final two who will proceed into the general election. But U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli, a Trump loyalist, has suggested that voter fraud investigations are ongoing, leading some other Republican officials and leaders to call the results into question. What should we make of these unsubstantiated allegations? And are they a preview of what Republicans have planned for 2026? In object lessons, Mike is kraken himself up over his plans to create the ultimate toy for his child. Ben is announcing the beta release of RAGtime, the tool that he (and Claude) developed to comb through large, messy datasets. Scott is heating things up in his backyard with his new Gozney pizza oven. And Molly is quacking up about her mallard, acquired from (the now unfortunately closed) Archipelago in Maine.  To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including: “The Empire Strikes Out.” Russia’s ground offensive in Ukraine appears to have hit some stiff resistance with it losing territory over the past calendar year in the face of a strong defense by Ukrainian forces—including strikes on Russian supply lines in Russia—and growing manpower shortages and economic pressures at home. But Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be compensating with one of the most brutal air campaigns in recent memory, including a massive aerial attack on Kyiv this week that forced tens of thousands of Ukrainians to shelter in place—including our own Nastya. What signs are there for optimism—or for caution—on the future of Russia’s war of aggression? And how will positive developments on the battlefield for Ukraine impact Russia’s demands at the negotiating table?“Strait Trippin’.” On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for the first time since the U.S. went to war with Iran and told senators that “the war is over.” This statement came just days after the United States and Iran traded strikes and Iranian state-run news outlets reported that it had broken off negotiations with the United States. President Trump, on the other hand, insists that the talks are still ongoing and appeared to pressure Israel to pull back from a major offensive against Hezbollah over the weekend. What do we make of these developments? Has there been any progress toward a negotiated solution to the conflict? Is there any reality to Secretary Rubio’s assertion that the war has come to an end?“Pulte Fiction.” President Trump announced an unexpected pick to take over the position of Director of National Intelligence on Tuesday: Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and heir to a residential home building empire, with apparently no national security experience whatsoever. Trump said Pulte will stay on as housing director and take over the job from Tulsi Gabbard in a part-time and acting capacity. So who exactly is he? And why does Trump trust him enough to pick him to serve, at least part time, in one of the country’s most important intelligence positions? In object lessons, the crew goes all in on what to read and listen to. Nastya is giving a nod to “The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,” by Angela Stent. Tyler is giving two thumbs up to the work of architecture critic Kate Wagner. Scott is tapping his toe to Marisa Anderson’s “The Anthology of UnAmerican Folk Music.” And Ari is grooving to the Switched On Pop podcast, a deep dive into the music that moves us. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes and Brookings Senior Fellow Kari Heerman to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including: “With Friends Like Xi.” This past week, top U.S. officials and business CEOs traveled with President Trump to Beijing for his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The summit had a warm air to it, with Trump going so far as to call Xi his “friend,” a far cry from his hawkish stance toward China during the campaign and his prior administration. But Trump left having made relatively few concrete deals on the host of issues dividing the U.S. and China. Did Trump miss an opportunity here? Or is the seeming thaw in relations a positive sign for future cooperation?“Dirty Dancing: Havana Fights.” Cuba ran out of oil last week, but the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against the island nation 90 miles off the coast of Florida has only intensified. On Monday, the U.S. announced new sanctions on three Cuban government agencies and 11 top officials amidst reports that the Department of Justice may seek an indictment against Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old brother of Fidel Castro and former president of Cuba. And surveillance flights over the island nation have reportedly increased in advance of an expected military build-up in coming weeks. How seriously should we take Trump’s threats to pursue regime change in yet another country after Iran and Venezuela? And how long can Cuba hang on with its economic situation becoming more dire?“I’ve Got 122 Problems, and a Tariff is One.” On May 7, the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down yet another round of Trump tariffs—this time, the across-the-board 10% Section 122 tariffs that President Trump had imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated the earlier tariffs he’d issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Specifically, the Court of International Trade ruled that the administration cannot meet the statutory requirements for using Section 122, though its ruling has since been stayed by the Federal Circuit pending appeal. Is this decision likely to stick? With another legal defeat, what options does the administration have left to follow through on Trump’s trade policy?In object lessons, Ben appeases the AI overlords with a glowing review of his latest experiments with Claude. Scott appeases his inner middle-aged man with a reprised recommendation of A Man on the Inside. And Kari fears that Americans are far from appeasing friends and allies in other democratic countries. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Senior Editor Michael Feinberg and Foreign Policy Editor Dana Stuster for a little chat with the guys about the week’s big national security news stories, including: “Minding Your Bs and Ts.” President Trump arrived in China this week alongside top U.S. officials and business executives for a much-anticipated summit with President Xi Jinping. U.S. diplomats hope the summit will revolve around the “five Bs”—meaning U.S. beef, soybeans, Boeing airplanes, and proposed boards for investment and trade—while Chinese officials want to talk about the “three Ts” of Taiwan, technology, and tariffs. What should our expectations be for the summit? And how much will the Iran war loom over the negotiations?“Crude Awakening.” This past week, negotiations between Iran and the United States appeared to reach a standstill, without any movement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or restoring the flow of oil and other goods that have driven crude oil prices to record highs. As each side seems poised to wait out the other, how long can they last before having to capitulate (or escalate)? And what do these dynamics mean for this war of attrition? “Cartel Blanche.” On Tuesday, CNN reported that the CIA has been conducting a covert campaign of assassinations in Mexico targeting mid-level members of the country’s drug cartels. Despite these reports—and the Trump administration’s longstanding claims that it is at “war” with the cartels—both the Mexican government and CIA have denied any involvement in these operations. What does this say about the Trump administration’s plans for future counter-narcotics operations? And the broader U.S.-Mexico relationship?In object lessons, Dana stresses that the key to a successful marriage—at least in his case—is a good microphone. Mike stresses that misery loves company, and despite the possible threat to his own marital bliss, contemplates a date night to AFI Silver’s Bleak Week. And Scott stresses that Lawfare does not exist without the support of listeners like you. Please consider contributing to our spring fundraising drive with a personally meaningful gift at lawfaremedia.org/support. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.