Rebuilding America's Industrial Backbone

a16z Partner Lisha Li sits down with AI researcher and Trillium founder Nathan Lambert to ask how durable the gap really is between frontier AI labs and open models. Nathan argues that OpenAI and Anthropic have structural advantages in compute, capital, and the ability to pioneer new training paradigms, but open-model labs, particularly in China, have proven remarkably capable of following close behind. They unpack how much of that comes from distillation versus technical talent, why compute remains a major constraint, and how data, RL environments, and post-training are increasingly shaping model progress. They also discuss Nathan’s new nonprofit research lab, Trillium, and its plans to open up parts of AI research that are increasingly difficult to study from the outside. That includes releasing RL environments and documenting how AI is actually being used to automate AI research, with the goal of demystifying recursive self-improvement and giving researchers and policymakers a clearer picture of what frontier systems can and cannot do.

Could AI break the cryptography protecting everything from crypto wallets and banking to private messages? Recent advances in AI-driven mathematical research have sparked new warnings about the security of today's encryption systems, but how much of the concern is supported by evidence? a16z crypto's Liz Harkavy is joined by Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh, a16z crypto General Partner Eddy Lazzarin, and Research Partner Justin Thaler to separate what we know from what remains speculation. They explain why modern cryptography relies on mathematical assumptions, what OpenAI's recent results do and don't demonstrate, and how the potential threat from AI differs from quantum computing. They also discuss why existing security practices and cryptographic alternatives offer reasons for confidence, the importance of building systems that can adapt if an assumption fails, and how AI could ultimately help researchers and developers make software more secure.

a16z General Partner Martin Casado sits down with MakerMaker.AI co-founders Dhaval Adjodah and Owen He to unpack recursive self-improvement, or RSI, and separate the increasingly popular term from what it would actually mean for an AI system to improve itself. Dhaval and Owen distinguish true RSI from simply using AI to automate pieces of AI development. Their goal is a closed loop where the system being improved is also doing the improving, across components including models, harnesses, and eventually more of the AI stack. They explain why closing that loop still doesn’t guarantee runaway “takeoff,” and why measuring real progress requires accounting for both capability gains and the resources required to achieve them. They also share what they’re seeing in their own research, including early signs that self-improving systems can increase performance while improving efficiency. And they dig into the practical challenges of proving those gains are real, from variance and reward hacking to the enormous difficulty of distinguishing genuine improvement from noise.

Nick Bostrom joins Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini on MTS to revisit the ideas about superintelligence and existential risk that he helped bring into the mainstream, now that increasingly capable AI systems actually exist. Nick discusses why reinforcement learning may be pushing models toward more goal-seeking behavior, what recent agent experiments tell us about instrumental convergence, and why he favors preserving the ability to slow frontier development rather than committing now to a broad or indefinite AI pause. He also makes the case that the risks of AI need to be weighed alongside its potential upside, from advances in medicine and longer lifespans to entirely new ways of being human. They also get into whether today's models could already have some form of consciousness, the tradeoffs of open-source AI, whether machines can do original philosophy, mind uploading, and what the simulation hypothesis might mean for the superintelligence we create.

a16z co-founder and General Partner Ben Horowitz joins James Norman on the inaugural episode of Vintage x Vintage for a conversation spanning entrepreneurship, investing, hip-hop, and what changes when AI makes building dramatically easier. Ben reflects on going from Netscape to becoming a first-time CEO, why every founder eventually hits a “we’re fucked, it’s over” moment, and what he learned from building a16z around the needs of entrepreneurs. He explains why great investors should look for world-class strengths rather than an absence of weaknesses, and why expanding the ways we recognize talent can raise the bar rather than lower it. They also look at the current AI cycle, why Ben believes it is bigger than the internet, how AI changes who can become a builder, and why the infrastructure beneath today’s models may need to be rebuilt from the ground up.