IRGC Sleeper Cells: The Inside Story

Aimen's back after a few days away uncovering the secret info and true motivations behind the Iran War. Today he and Thomas focus on the Lebanon front in the war, telling the story of how the Lebanese state was progressively undermined over several decades, as non-state actors acted like a cancer on the body politic — with the largest tumour being, of course, Hezbollah. Aimen and Thomas discuss: The method behind the madness of Pres. Trump's chaotic messaging. The likelihood of a U.S. assault on Iran's islands in the Gulf. Whether Gulf leaders are really egging the U.S. on to bring an end to the regime. The U.S.'s objective of 'regime destruction' and how that differs from 'regime change'. The failure of energy traders to price risk properly. Abdul Malik al-Houthi's speech on 26 March and what it reveals about his intentions The long history of Lebanon's experience of militant non-state actors and foreign intervention How Hezbollah was able to re-arm and re-build after the catastrophe of autumn 2024. How deep corruption within the Lebanese government and military is preventing the state from disbanding Hezbollah. What to think about all those seasoned analysts who are convinced that America will lose this war. Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Aimen has been called away for important last-minute insider meetings, so sitting in for him on today's episode is Nadwa Al-Dawsari, veteran researcher, conflict analyst, and policy advisor with 20 years of field experience in Yemen and the broader Middle East. Nadwa and Thomas discuss: How Yemeni tribalism really works The IRGC agents who are in control of Houthi war policy Houthi eschatological beliefs When the Houthis are likely to join the Iran War in force What the military capabilities of the Houthis really are The long shadow of the Stockholm Agreement Houthi techniques of indoctrination and control The growing Houthi presence in the Horn of Africa How the Houthis and Al Qaeda are now effectively allies Why Western decision-makers get the Middle East so disastrously wrong Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find Nadwa on X: ⁠⁠https://x.com/Ndawsari⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks to Harvard professor Sven Beckert about his new book Capitalism: A Global History. Sven explains: Why the history of capitalism matters for understanding the present How most histories of capitalism are too Eurocentric How merchant communities in the medieval Muslim world and other regions laid the foundations of capitalism How European merchants learned from and interacted with merchants in the Muslim world Trust networks in global trade, including family, religious, and city-based merchant networks How capitalism and state power grew together European divergence: why Europe became central to capitalism Effects of Ottoman control and European geopolitical weakness on Atlantic expansion Role of conquest, slavery, and colonial expansion in building capitalist societies Tension between capitalism’s drive for unlimited growth and nature’s limits Challenges to neoliberalism from the left and the populist right Find Sven on Bluesky: @svenbeckert.bsky.social Visit Sven’s personal website: svenbeckert.com Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm Find Conflicted on X: https://x.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod And YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island as the United States and its allies struggle to wrest full control of the Arabo-Persian Gulf from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Aimen and Thomas lay out the whole story of this geostrategically vital region, from ancient times all the way up to this very morning—explaining why this war is happening, and how it is almost certainly to end. Aimen and Thomas discuss: How the Strait of Hormuz caused Noah's Flood The medieval Kingdom of Hormuz How the Gulf is always caught up in the Iranian plateau's endless boom-and-bust political cycle How Europeans staked a claim on Hormuz in 1507—and never really left The fact that the U.S. did indeed go into this war with a plan for Hormuz How the U.S. will take Kharg Island—and what they will do with it The ingenuity of Gulf Arab leadership in planning workarounds for the eventuality of the Strait being closed How European powers and other allies are really contributing to the war effort Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks with Ali Ansari, Professor of Modern Middle East History at the University of St Andrews. Prof. Ansari discusses: The depth and antiquity of Iranian culture His childhood experiences inside the Shah's inner circle The Shah's biggest mistake How the revolution could have better built upon what it inherited The huge incompetence and corruption that has undermined Iran's political economy How the new Supreme Leader is the IRGC's man The clarity of America's military aims alongside the opacity of its political aims The real weaknesses of the Iran Nuclear Deal How Iranians inside Iran feel about the regime and the war Follow Prof. Ansari on X: ⁠https://x.com/aa51_ansari Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm ⁠ Find Conflicted on X: ⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠ And Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠ And Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠ And YouTube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sdlF1mY5t4⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices