Sudan Pt.4: Omar Al-Bashir Loses Grip & Chaos Reigns

EMERGENCY EPISODE In another hugely dramatic turn in the Middle East, the Syrian civil war has reignited. On November 27th 2024, Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s HTS reconquered huge swathes of the North West of the country, including the key city of Aleppo. Conflicted is here with an emergency explainer episode to try and decipher exactly what has gone on in Syria over the past week, and indeed the past decade, to give you the context you need to understand it. Thomas and Aimen are going back to a country that has felt dormant and out of the news for years, but where conflict has now reignited. We’ll go back to the emergence of Julani as a force initially within Al-Qaeda, tracing his history to explain the complicated dynamics at play in Syria’s civil war – we’ll discuss the Nusra Front, its transformation into HTS and break with Al-Qaeda, plus more background on everyone from the Kurds to the assortment of other rebel groups, to Hezbollah, Iran and more… And now, with a temperamental ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel in force, we’ll examine just how Julani took his chance to seize key areas from the weakened Assad regime.  But what are the larger geopolitical forces at play? How will regional powers respond? And does this spell the end for Assad? New Conflicted episodes will be coming every two weeks, but if you want to have your Conflicted fix every single week, then you’ll have to join our Conflicted Community. Subscribers will get bonus episodes every other week, and can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more. All the information you need to sign up to the Conflicted Community is on this link: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week for the Conflicted Community, Thomas and Aimen are giving their take on, you guessed it, the US election and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. That’s right, dearest listeners, it’s Donald Trump part 2, and this time, who knows what’s in store for America, the Middle East and the world. After assessing how Trump got in and a look at his eccentric picks for top jobs in his administration, we take a look at what this all means for US foreign policy in the Middle East – will we see America lose its ‘velvet gloves’ when dealing with Iran? How is the US relationship with Qatar likely to change? And what effect will a Trump Presidency have on internal politics in the Middle East?  To listen to the full episode, you’ll need to subscribe to the Conflicted Community. And don’t forget, subscribers can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more. All the information you need to sign up is on this link: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted’s tour of Africa takes another turn, this time to the East, as we head to the horn of Africa to learn about that most ancient of lands… Ethiopia! Ethiopia is the cradle of humanity – the place where some of the oldest remains of homo sapiens have been found, and its history through antiquity is equally rich. In this episode Thomas and Aimen are going way back in time to tel us about great African civilizations like the Aksumite Kingdom, and all the fascinating stories that intersect with so many Biblical and Quranic tales from the period. In a sweeping history, we move on to discuss the ‘King of Kings’ in Ethiopia who formed the Solomonic Dynasty – one which is still revered by the country today. And finally, we’ll hear how this proud African country got its reputation for standing up to Imperialism, as they attempt to withstand attacks from Mahdists, the British and especially Italians, who sought to conquer and oppress it. But who would come out on top? And how would this all set Ethiopia up for the 20th century, when a new ruler would come in to take up the Solomonic mantle? New Conflicted Season 5 episodes will be coming every two weeks, but if you want to have your Conflicted fix every single week, then you’ll have to join our Conflicted Community. Subscribers will get bonus episodes every other week, and can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more. All the information you need to sign up to the Conflicted Community is on this link: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted is back, continuing our trip across La Françafrique this week, with a survey of the last 10 years in Francophone West Africa, and yes, you guessed it: it’s insurgencies, jihadi movements and coups galore! Thomas and Aimen open up with a discussion of the anti-jihadist activities being carried out by the French in the Sahel since 2013, including the infamous operations Serval and Barkhane. But as jihadi movements grew, the French found themselves in hot water, which got even hotter as a new player entered the fray: the Russians, in the guise of the Wagner Group. We then discuss how the Wagner Group operates in the area, coming in after a coups across the region to cause France’s influence to dwindle, and making instability become the plat du jour for many West African countries. Will the region ever get out of it? New Conflicted Season 5 episodes will be coming every two weeks, but if you want to have your Conflicted fix every single week, then you’ll have to join our Conflicted Community. Subscribers will get bonus episodes every other week, and can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more. All the information you need to sign up to the Conflicted Community is on this link: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week’s Conflicted Community episode, we invite the researcher and author Jack Margolin onto the show, to talk about his recently published book, The Wagner Group: Inside Russia’s Mercenary Army. Jack is an independent researcher and expert on modern mercenaries, focussing on conflict finance, guns and crime in data, who previously worked with the The Center for Advanced Defense Studies. Continuing our Africa focus this season, Jack and Thomas discuss how Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of this Private Military Company, went from creating troll farms in St. Petersburg to sending troops to Syria and then Africa, with malign interests every step of the way. Jack explains how the ‘adhocracy’ Wagner operate in the region sees them exploit local resources for monetary gain, while also bolstering Russian interests in the region by doing the jobs that nation states and more cautious mercenary groups were not able to do. But after Prigozhin’s downfall last year, are the Wagner Group still around? And will they continue to offer despotic African governments something the West cannot? To listen to the full episode, you’ll need to subscribe to the Conflicted Community. And don’t forget, subscribers can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more. All the information you need to sign up is on this link: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices