Conflicted Community: Q&A – Hassan Nasrallah Assassinated and the Middle East on the Brink

In this Conflicted Conversation, journalist Chris Horton talks about his new book Ghost Nation: The Story of Taiwan and Its Struggle for Survival. Chris explains: Why China wants Taiwan and why the island is vital to control of the western Pacific. Taiwan’s strategic position in the First Island Chain between China, Japan and the Philippines. How a Chinese invasion, blockade or maritime quarantine of Taiwan could unfold. Why a war over Taiwan could devastate global trade and the world economy. What Taiwan’s fall would mean for US power, Japan and the Philippines. Why Taiwan is an independent democracy but still officially called the Republic of China. Who the Taiwanese are: Indigenous peoples, Hoklo, Hakka and post-1949 mainlanders. How martial law, dictatorship and democratisation created modern Taiwanese identity. Why the Kuomintang, once Communist China’s enemy, is now Taiwan’s most Beijing-friendly major party. Whether Taiwan could eventually choose closer integration with China through democracy rather than war. Find Chris on X: www.x.com/heguisen Visit Chris’s website: www.chrishortonwriter.com Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Aimen's prediction on 4 August came true, and in the intervening weeks the United States have ramped up the economic pressure on the Iranian regime. The question is: how with the IRGC react? The war re-escalated over the weekend, and as the Iranian people began to make their feelings felt, all indications are that peace is farther away than ever. Aimen and Thomas discuss: Operation Economic Outcast: US sanctions and regional trade restrictions tighten Iran’s economic isolation. Strait of Hormuz: US demining, Gulf oil exports and Iran’s new underwater drone threat reshape the naval war. Iran’s economic crisis: collapsing rial, inflation, shortages and possible unrest increase pressure on the IRGC. UAE-Iran trade: Dubai’s historic commercial role shrinks as Gulf states join Washington’s economic campaign. US strategy in the Gulf: Trump administration cohesion, long-term military deployment and growing concern about China. Iran escalation risks: attacks on Gulf infrastructure, domestic repression and renewed US-Iran fighting. Tactical nuclear weapons: Aimen warns the conflict could cross the nuclear threshold if escalation continues. Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Simon Sebag Montefiore returns to the show, this time to talk about his new book The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Simon explains: How Britain and France tried — and often failed — to shape the post-Ottoman Middle East Why Sykes–Picot is a misleading shorthand for the region’s modern borders How Atatürk, Nasser and other Middle Eastern leaders remade the region through their own choices The violent shift from Ottoman pluralism to nationalist, more homogeneous states Why Nasser’s charisma produced a powerful Arab myth but a disastrous authoritarian model Why traditional monarchies in Morocco, Jordan and the Gulf often outlasted revolutionary republics How America became the Middle East’s dominant anti-imperial imperial power after Europe’s retreat Why militias, parastates and insurgencies make “total victory” in today’s Middle East so elusive Find Simon on X: x.com/simonmontefiore Visit Simon’s website: www.simonsebagmontefiore.com Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Ian Kumekawa (a fellow of Harvard University and a lecturer at MIT) talks about his book Empty Vessel: The Story of the Global Economy in One Ship. Ian explains: The offshore global economy: where loopholes, ships and responsibility slip beyond ordinary jurisdiction From Little Toot to rusting barges: how industrial capitalism lost its confident postwar world Sweden’s socialist shipyards, private tax dodges, and the strange birth of the Vessel Containerisation’s hidden cost: how global trade hollowed out Manhattan’s working waterfront The Falklands War, Thatcherism, and the private infrastructure behind imperial sovereignty New York’s floating prison: mass incarceration meets offshore legal ingenuity Wall Street goes offshore onshore: banks, deregulation and International Banking Facilities Neoliberalism, legality and injustice: when the modern economy makes the immoral lawful Visit Ian’s website: www.iankumekawa.com Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Yemeni researcher and political analyst Baraa Shiban (and dear friend of the show) is back not only to give us an update on Yemen now that the civil war (and Saudi Arabia’s role in it) are heating up again, but also to give Thomas a much-deserved dressing down for not going far enough to hold Jeremy Hunt to account for his role in the Stockholm Agreement. Baraa explains: The collapse of the 2022 Yemen truce and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping The Yemen battlefield map: Houthi control of Sanaa, Hodeidah and the northwest versus government-held south and east The strategic importance of Marib and Hadramaut, including Saudi-trained National Shield and Emergency Forces Mocha, the Giants Brigades and the impact of the UAE withdrawal on anti-Houthi military capabilities The Stockholm Agreement and how the 2018 ceasefire strengthened long-term Houthi leverage Why the Houthis are escalating now and how renewed fighting serves Iran’s regional strategy Houthi links with the IRGC, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, including operations and financial networks in Iraq Saudi war aims, the Mecca Accords and the emerging Saudi–Turkey–Pakistan security architecture Follow Baraa on Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/baraashiban/⁠ Follow Baraa on X: ⁠https://x.com/BShtwtr⁠ Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm⁠  Find us on X: ⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠ And Facebook: ⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠ And Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small . Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices