TIP860: Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP.TO): Irreplaceable Moat, Unproven Compounding w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley
12 November - 1 hour 18 minsIn today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Canadian Pacific Kansas City, the only railroad that connects Canada, the United States, and Mexico on a single network. They trace how the company helped shape Canada, how an activist investor and a legendary railroader turned it into one of North America’s best-run railroads, and why a transformational merger has made its recent results much harder to judge. Along the way, they look at the barriers to replicating a railroad, management’s compensation program, the risks facing the business, and the company’s current intrinsic value.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:18) How a railroad helped decide the shape o...
Series Episodes
TIP861: Reddit (RDDT): Record Cash Flow, Collapsing Share Price w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley
In today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Reddit, a stock Shawn first pitched about a year and a half ago that has now given back nearly all of its gains after a one-day drop of roughly 25%. They’ll explain how Reddit makes money, why logged-in American users are worth far more than drive-by visitors from Google, and how Google’s AI answers turned Reddit’s biggest source of traffic into its biggest risk. Along the way, they look at Reddit’s network effects, its returns on capital, stock-based compensation and buybacks, Steve Huffman’s record as CEO, the move to a logged-in-only experience, and what the business is worth today. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:03:09) Why Reddit fell 25% in a day despite 50% revenue growth (00:11:29) How Reddit’s contextual ads differ from Meta’s targeted ads (00:14:10) Why logged-in users are worth three times logged-out users (00:26:57) How Google’s AI answers are cutting off Reddit’s traffic (00:35:54) Why volunteer-run communities make Reddit so hard to copy (00:37:02) How Reddit earns over 100% returns with almost no capital (00:39:06) Why stock comp is Reddit’s largest bill (00:51:10) What Huffman delivered as CEO, and the governance trade-offs (00:57:00) Why going logged-in-only may be Reddit’s most important bet (01:06:07) Valuation discussion (01:06:57) What Reddit is worth today, and whether we’re adding Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES If you are interested in a Community for investors to learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts: Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind. If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle. Track The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. Portfolio Review Submit Tool. Listen to Shawn’s first Reddit pitch. Check out Reddit’s Investor Relations. Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Meta, Snapchat, Trade Desk, Doximity, AppLovin. Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn. Follow Shawn on X and LinkedIn. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Monarch Plus500 Bilt Glean Granola References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 6 mins
15 November Finished
TIP859: Mercado Libre ($MELI): We Doubled Down on Meli w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley return to Mercado Libre (NASDAQ: MELI), a holding in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. The “Amazon of Latin America” just reported its 31st consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 30%, a streak no company of its size has ever matched, with revenue up 45% to $10.75 billion. In the same quarter, its operating margin fell to 6.3%, the lowest in years, and the stock trades below where it was originally pitched. Daniel and Shawn cover the evolution of Mercado Pago, which processed $109 billion in payments last quarter, more than four times what the marketplace sold, and runs a $17.9 billion credit book growing 62% a year that has made it the sixth-largest card issuer in Brazil. They explain why booking losses on new credit cards upfront is the biggest reason margins fell, and why Pago is so important for the ecosystem. They then take a close look at Shopee, the biggest competitor for Meli in Brazil. They also cover Amazon, and the question that decides the whole thesis: will Brazil end up looking like the U.S., with one or two dominant platforms, or like China, where four players compete margins down to 2%? In the end, they walk through the updated valuation model and explain why they added to the position. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:02:04) What changed since our last pitch (00:05:57) How Mercado Pago keeps taking share (00:07:25) Why Pago strengthens the flywheel (00:21:48) Whether competition forces Meli’s hands (00:44:29) How margins impact the Meli thesis (00:51:08) What MELI’s stock is worth (00:57:13) Whether MELI will stay part of The Intrinsic Value Portfolio Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community where investors learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts. Apply for The Mastermind Inner Circle to connect with the most successful investors, executives, and business leaders from our audience. As an Inner Circle Member, you also have the opportunity to join us at a private dinner with Markel CEO Tom Gayner in March! Track The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. Portfolio Review Submit Tool. Our Original Mercado Libre Episode. Check out the Sea Limited Episode. Check out the Grab Episode. Mercado Libre Investor Relations. Dive into our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports. Follow Daniel on X and LinkedIn. Follow Shawn on X and LinkedIn. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Monarch Plus500 Bilt Granola References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 4 mins
8 November Finished
TIP858: McDonald's ($MCD): Generational Compounder in Historical Drawdown w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley cover their first restaurant stock. Although one could argue it isn’t really a restaurant business at all. McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) is the landlord behind $139 billion of yearly sales across roughly 46,000 restaurants. About 95% of those restaurants are run by franchisees, who paid McDonald’s around $10.4 billion in rent and $6 billion in royalties last year. That means about 91% of McDonald’s restaurant-level profit comes from collecting rent and royalties, not from selling burgers. Daniel and Shawn explain how Ray Kroc took over McDonald’s and came up with the real estate plans with his business partner Sonneborn. They also cover how Bill Ackman’s 2005 refranchising plan was rejected by management, then carried out a decade later by Steve Easterbrook, the CEO who was later fired and handed back $105 million. They look at why franchisees are currently pushing back, and what the roughly $8.5 billion of rent relief and remodel support announced at the September investor day means for shareholders. They also ask whether GLP-1 drugs can be a terminal risk for McDonald’s. In the end, they walk through the valuation model and decide whether the world’s most famous landlord is worth its price, and whether McDonald’s earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:02:06) About McDonald’s journey to a global franchise (00:11:01) Why and how McDonald’s turned into a real estate company (00:20:37) How McDonald’s actually makes money (00:23:56) How the franchising business works (00:28:48) Why McDonald’s wants to sell more restaurants (00:46:36) How GLP-1 drugs change the business (01:19:16) Valuation discussion (01:21:59) What MCD’s stock is worth (01:24:56) Whether MCD will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community where investors learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts. Apply for The Mastermind Inner Circle to connect with the most successful investors, executives, and business leaders from our audience. Track The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. Portfolio Review Submit Tool. McDonald’s Investor Day. McDonald’s Investor Relations. Jeff Nippard – Peptides. Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Domino’s Pizza, CoStar Group, Walmart, NVR. Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn. Follow Shawn on X and LinkedIn. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Monarch Plus500 Bilt Granola References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 22 mins
5 November Finished
TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra
In today’s episode, Stig Brodersen is joined by Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramachandra for a new round of stock pitches. Hari makes the case for Novo, until recently the most valuable company in Europe, now priced as if its obesity franchise is a melting ice cube. Stig pitches S&P Global, the company behind the S&P 500 and one of the world’s great ratings businesses, and explains why it became his first new position in more than a year. Tobias breaks down Deckers Brands, the owner of HOKA and UGG, trading at 11 times earnings and buying back stock aggressively. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:02:24) Why Hari is bullish on Novo Nordisk (Ticker: NVO), trading at 12 times forward earnings with a 4.5% dividend and an oral obesity pill gaining traction. (00:15:24) The bear case for Novo Nordisk, including Eli Lilly’s lead in efficacy and market share, Medicare price negotiations, and patent expiries in key markets. (00:28:19) Why Stig is bullish on S&P Global (Ticker: SPGI), highlighting the ratings oligopoly, the economics of the S&P 500 index, and why he bought a starter position below $400. (00:46:35) The bear case for S&P Global, including AI disruption of Market Intelligence, competition from startups like AlphaSense and Rogo, and whether 23 times earnings is cheap enough. (00:58:41) Why Tobias is bullish on Deckers (Ticker: DECK), emphasizing $1.6 billion in net cash, buybacks of 80% of free cash flow, and thoughtful capital allocation. (01:19:51) The bear case for Deckers Brands, including slowing HOKA growth, the fashion risk in UGG, a squeezed consumer, and the low base rate for brands re-accelerating growth. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES If you are interested in a Community for investors to learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts: Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind. If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle. Stig Brodersen’s Portfolio and Track Record. Check out the Mastermind Discussion Q3, 2026 | Video. Check out the Mastermind Discussion Q2, 2026 | Video. Check out the Mastermind Discussion Q1, 2026 | Video. Check out the Mastermind Discussion Q4, 2025 | Video. Check out the Mastermind Discussion Q3, 2025 | Video. Check out the Mastermind Discussion Q2, 2025 | Video. Tobias Carlisle’s podcast, The Acquirers Podcast. Tobias’ ETF, ZIG. Tobias’ ETF, Deep. Hari’s Blog. Tweet to Hari. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Monarch Plus500 Netsuite Bilt References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 27 mins
1 November Finished
TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley
In today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss whether Airbnb’s recent slowdown was a warning sign or just building the groundwork for its next growth phase. They explore how a company that owns no homes built one of travel’s strongest brands, and why AI agents could threaten or strengthen it. You’ll also learn how Brian Chesky’s founder-led approach and new growth levers are shaping the business’s future. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:11:30) Why Airbnb barely noticed when it shut off advertising (00:17:08) What really caused Airbnb’s growth and cash flow slowdown (00:31:20) How Airbnb is winning market share from competitors (00:33:32) Why AI chatbots could become travel’s new gatekeepers (00:35:21) The asset no competitor can buy, no matter their budget (00:42:08) The hidden trade-off behind Airbnb’s Reserve Now, Pay Later (00:56:54) Why Brian Chesky’s “founder mode” reshaped how Airbnb operates (01:16:17) The fast-growing countries that could fuel Airbnb for decades (01:19:55) How hotels became Airbnb’s backdoor customer acquisition channel (01:24:29) Valuation discussion (01:26:55) Intrinsic value of Airbnb (01:29:10) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add to their Airbnb position in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES If you are interested in a Community for investors to learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts: Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind. If you are interested in more personal meet-ups, meeting superinvestors, and discussing investing and things that go beyond: Apply for The Mastermind: Inner Circle. Track The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. Portfolio Review Submit Tool. Our original pitch on Airbnb. Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Restoration Hardware, FICO, Copart. Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn. Follow Shawn on X and LinkedIn. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Monarch Plus500 Netsuite Bilt References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
1 hour 26 mins
29 October Finished
